Marta Bottero, Politecnico di Torino, Chiara D’Alpaos, Università di Padova, Benedetto Manganelli, Università della Basilicata, Paolo Rosato, Università di Trieste
The discount rate for property and project evaluations, based on the ability to generate financial/economic flows in both private and public spheres is the most important and, at the same time, the most challenging parameter to define. In the private sector time, inflation, financial markets, monetary policy, and alternative investment returns are crucial variables that must be taken into consideration when choosing the sage. In the public sphere, the choice of the discount rate for the evaluation of investment projects – especially if these are long-term and have significant social and environmental implications – is influenced by further difficulties, dealing with political and ethical issues, such as intra- and intergenerational distributive equity, the accuracy of the estimate of extra-market effects, forecasts in the rates of development and technological innovation, and digitalisation, and many others.
The conference aims to explore the relationship between risk and uncertainty, time and value, in private and public valuations through different methodological approaches.
Two sessions are planned.
The first session will be devoted to investigate the theoretical and operational aspects related to the choice of essay in the valuation of real estate by means of income capitalisation and of investment properties by means of discounting to the actuality of cash flows.
The second session will focus on the quotation of investments with relevant social and environmental implications. The discussion will host insights and reflections on methodological approaches related to the choice of social discount rate in Benefit-Cost Analysis and Cost-Effectiveness Analysis, as well as to how time and uncertainty factors can be included in multi-criteria analysis procedures.
2:00 p.m. hall entrance
2:30 p.m. start of proceedings
PROGRAMME
Introduction and opening remarks by
Paolo Rosato, University of Trieste, President of SIEV
First Session: The Private Discount Rate
Moderated by
Antonio Nesticò, University of Salerno
Preliminary report
“Discounting in real estate appraisals. Peculiarities and criticalities in the choice of rate”
Benedetto Maganelli, University of Basilicata, and Alberto Maria Lughini, President Reddy’s Group srl
Presentation of contributions
“Potential of the real options theory and decision tree analysis in coping with investment risks and uncertainty”
Chiara D’Alpaos, Paolo Rosato, Alexis Tsoukias
“The regressed DCFA and evidence from new residential construction in Rome”
Maurizio D’Amato, Mauro Iacobini
“Determination of risk differentials in the industrial capital rate of return using Analytic Hierarchy Process and Expert Analysis”
Fabrizio Battisti, Orazio Campo
“Capitalisation essay research for the estimation of historical properties. The case of a 17th century Convent”
Sebastiano Carbonara, Lucia Della Spina, Davide Stefano
“An analysis of the functional relationships between property risk factors and the capitalisation essay for the residential sector in the city of Rome”
Benedetto Manganelli, Debora Anelli, Francesco Tajani, Pierluigi Morano
“The discount essay in the valuation of public investment projects carried out in PPP: an analytical model set on tested system data”
Maria Rosaria Guarini, Pierluigi Morano, Alessandro Micheli
“A deductive approach for discount rate estimation applied to real estate appraisals using Discounted Cash Flow Analysis”
Marco Locurcio, Francesco Tajani, Pierluigi Morano, Rossana Ranieri
“The impact of ESG criteria in real estate investment: the case of a manufacturing company”
Sandro Danesi
“The return on residential real estate investment at the turn of the millennium: internal rates of return and capital asset pricing model”
Paolo Rosato, Chiara D’Alpaos, Raul Berto
End of the first session
Scientific-organisational committee of the seminar:
Marta Bottero, Chiara D’Alpaos, Patrizia Lombardi, Alberto Maria Lunghini, Benedetto Manganelli, Pierluigi Morano, Alessandra Oppio, Paolo Rosato, Stefano Stanghellini
Italiano
Contributions