SIEV – Società Italiana di Estimo e Valutazione (Italian Society of Estimate and Valuation)
The seminar proposes a debate about valuation of risk and uncertainty in valuations, real estate investments and territorial policies. It is an opportunity to present and compare some recent significant studies and reflections on risk and uncertainty assessment, with particular emphasis on methodological and operational aspects, related to assessment techniques and tools. There will be an invited plenary session followed by a session dedicated to the presentation of papers produced for the call. Both sessions will be focused on real estate and real estate investment assessment, as well as on assessments in public investment and urban and territorial policies.
In general, issues to be explored may relate to risk and/or uncertainty: in the assessment of real estate and real estate investments; in public investment choices; in plan evaluations; in public-private partnership operations; in the evaluation of complex projects; in the planning of strategic interventions, including infrastructural ones.
PROGRAMME
Introduction:
Stefano Stanghellini, SIEV
Plenary session
Moderates:
Chiara D’Alpaos, University of Padova
VALUATION OF RISK AND UNCERTAINTY IN PUBLIC POLICIES
“Types of uncertainty and quantification possibilities”
Daniele Chiffi, Milan Polytechnic University
Discussant:
Ivan Blečić, University of Cagliari
“Risk and uncertainty: we can decide with certainty on uncertain events?”
Alexis Tsoukias, LAMSADE-CNRS, PSL, Université Paris Dauphine
Discussant:
Alessandra Oppio, Milan Polytechnic University
RISK AND UNCERTAINTY IN ECONOMIC VALUATIONS
“Real options in risk and uncertainty modelling”
Tine Compernolle, University of Antwerp
Discussant:
Elena Fregonara, Turin Polytechnic University
“The impact of uncertainty in investment valuations and analysis”
Nick French, International Valuation Standards Council (IVSC)
Discussant:
Laura Gabrielli, Iuav University of Venice
OPERATIONAL APPROACHES TO RISK AND UNCERTAINTY IN REAL ESTATE VALUATIONS
“A new vision of credit rating as an important tool for real estate investment assessment and forecasting”
Eva Vocci, Fabio Politelli e Valentino Pediroda, Modefinance SRL, DIA- UNITS
Discussant:
Marco Locurcio, Bari Polytechnic University
“The Revenue Agency’s ‘Monitoring and analysis of real estate development operations’ project”
Mauro Iacobini, Osservatorio Mercato Immobiliare – Revenue Agency
Discussant:
Benedetto Manganelli, University of Basilicata
Afternoon session
RISK AND UNCERTAINTY IN ( VALUATIONS FOR) PUBLIC POLICIES
Moderates:
Marta Bottero, Turin Polytechnic University
“Risk analysis for actors in PPP concertation aimed at recovering emergencies in urban areas”
Luigi Dolores, Maria Macchiaroli, Gianluigi De Mare, University of Salerno
“Risks arising from planning and building restrictions and regulations: impact on the market value of real estate”
Fabrizio Battisti, University of Florence
Giovanna Acampa, Giorgia Marino, “Kore” University of Enna
“Uncertainty in the estimation of reconstruction costs expected by the Italian State following natural disasters: an inductive proposal”
Sebastiano Carbonara, Davide Stefano, “G. d’Annunzio” University of Chieti – Pescara
Lucia Della Spina, Mediterranea University of Reggio Calabria
“Enhancing ‘Ivrea, an industrial city of the 20th century’: dealing with uncertainty and predicting risks”
Rocco Curto, Maria Franca Norese, Diana Rolando, Turin Polytechnic University
“Human and urban capital in defining the landscape risk of historical urban fabric”
Salvatore Giuffrida, Cheren Cappello, Maria Rosa Trovato, Ludovica Nasca, Vittoria Ventura, University of Catania
“Evaluation of quality management services in the building sector: the experience of the European project QUEST”
Marta Bottero, Federico Dell’Anna, Turin Polytechnic University
Sergio Olivero, Links Foundation
RISK AND UNCERTAINTY IN REAL ESTATE ESTIMATES AND VALUATIONS
Moderates:
Manuela Rebaudengo, Turin Polytechnic University
“Un asset allocation model GIS-based for the definition of risk/return resilient real estate portfolios”
Marco Locurcio, Pierluigi Morano, Debora Anelli, Bari Polytechnic University
Francesco Tajani, Sapienza University of Rome
“Capital Asset Pricing Method real estate investment risk: an analysis of returns over the last thirty years in Italy”
Paolo Rosato, Raul Berto, University of Trieste
Chiara D’Alpaos, University of Padova
“Risk analysis in residential real estate. A specific risk valuation model for estimating land value recapture ante/post urban planning variance”
Maria Rosaria Guarini, Alessandro Micheli, Francesco Sica, Sapienza Università di Roma
Pierluigi Morano, Bari Polytechnic University
“Risk assessment between reality and perception, and between environmental conflicts and real estate devaluation”
Carmelo M. Torre, Marco Locurcio, Bari Polytechnic University
Debora Anelli, Sapienza University of Rome
“The assessment of the forced sale value in the Italian residential real estate judicial auction market”
Francesco Tajani, Sapienza University of Rome
Pierluigi Morano, Felicia Di Liddo, Bari Polytechnic University
Paola Amoruso, LUM University
“The accounts of building areas: the easy deception of dream value”
Leopoldo Sdino, Corrado Ferriani, Michael Spataro, Milan Polytechnic University
Paolo Rosasco, University of Genoa
Conclusions:
Paolo Rosato, SIEV
Selected speeches for the recorded summary, available online:
“Financial and economic risk profiles in the water charge structure applied to users”
Maria Macchiaroli, Luigi Dolores, University of Salerno
“Risk-scape. Security capital and risk chains in city network territories”
Maria Rosa Trovato, Ludovica Nasca, Salvatore Giuffrida, Cheren Cappello, University of Catania
“Which indicators for which territorial policies? A systematic literature review”
Isabella Maria Lami, Francesca Abastante, Marika Gaballo, Turin Polytechnic University
“A model for the valuation of economic benefits related to energy requalification interventions: an application to the existing building heritage in Italy”
Francesco Tajani, Endriol Doko, Sapienza University of Rome
Pierluigi Morano, Felicia Di Liddo, Bari Polytechnic University
“Decision support tools for the regeneration of villages and the revitalisation of marginal areas”
Patrizia Lombardi, Sara Torabi Moghadam, Maurizia Pignatelli, Turin Polytechnic University
Italiano
Contributions